A study published online in the American Journal of Public Health in early June analyzed dietary and health data from 47,999 U.S. adults collected through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 1999 and 2018, finding that higher ultra-processed food intake was associated with worse cardiometabolic health markers and a modestly elevated risk of death from any cause.
Researchers estimated the share of each participant's diet derived from ultra-processed foods and compared it against body weight, blood sugar, blood pressure, cholesterol-related markers, and several chronic health conditions. A related analysis from Tufts University researchers, released the same month, found that for every 10% increase in calories from ultra-processed foods, participants showed higher body weight, worse blood sugar control, and higher blood pressure on average -- and suggested that the way these foods are manufactured, not just their nutrient content, may partly explain the associations.
The study's authors were careful to frame the findings as associational rather than proof that any single processed product is inherently dangerous. The practical guidance emerging from this research center on reducing the largest, most frequently consumed sources of ultra-processed foods in a person's typical diet, rather than pursuing strict avoidance of all processed foods.
This adds to a growing evidence base: a 2026 scoping review conducted for the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations found consistent associations between ultra-processed food intake and weight gain, obesity, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and all-cause mortality across dozens of prospective cohort studies.
Diet quality sits alongside calorie balance as a factor in long-term weight outcomes -- see our weight loss curve article for how these pieces fit together.
Sources: Futurity (Tufts University), American Journal of Public Health coverage