Weeks 1-2: rapid, deceptive change
The earliest phase of a deficit often shows the fastest scale movement, driven heavily by glycogen depletion and the water it releases -- not primarily fat loss, even though it feels like early momentum.
Weeks 3-8: the "true" deficit phase
Once glycogen stores stabilize, scale movement more closely tracks actual fat loss, though metabolic adaptation has already begun quietly reducing TDEE below its starting point.
Weeks 8-20: compounding adaptation
This is typically where the gap between naive linear predictions and real-world results becomes most visible, as accumulated adaptive thermogenesis (potentially 5-15% beyond mass-based predictions) meaningfully narrows the original deficit.
Beyond week 20: the maintenance transition
As goal weight approaches, TDEE has typically settled well below the starting figure. The shift into maintenance requires deliberately raising intake to the new, lower TDEE -- not simply "eating normally" at pre-diet levels, which would reintroduce a large surplus.